Has the price of the Portuguese Jubilee More or Less peaked? If so, why?

Greetings,

I believe that many serious IWC collectors consider the 1993 limited edition Portuguese Jubilee, ref. 5441, as shown on the left here as the "one" watch to own:

it is a great watch --the one that launched the rebirth of the IWC Portuguese line and legend, a classic watch with panache, and with the original IWC Cal. 98xx pocket watch movement.

Recently, there was a discussion about relative pricing and appreciation here on this forum about this model compared to some others click here...

I'd like the extend this discussion with two thoughts, and would solicit your comments:

1. Over the past five years, the secondary price of the ref. 5441 has held relatively static (do you agree?)
2. This may be caused by the many other new "time only" Portuguese models that have been introduced, at a lesser cost (such as the Pure Classic, the Vintage Collection model shown above right, etc.) -again, do you agree or disagree?

I still think it's a great watch and also I'm really glad that the newer models have been produced. But I'm just curious as to what all this might mean.

Michael-let me take the first shot at this.
Regarding your first point, certainly over the last 2 or so years the prices for Jubilees have held steady. I still see the same unsold watches for the same asking prices at several Internet sites. I even personally know an owner who will be happy to get just over original list since he got such a good deal way back when (must have gotten it from Richard Paige :-)).
As to your second point: those subsequent watches may have something to do with holding down the price of a Jubilee, but I do think there are other factors at play.
In the original thread I pointed out that IWC seemingly has no interest in driving up the price of older models-either intentionally or unintentionally-as some other brands. Good for us collectors.
But there is something else I've noticed since joining this Forum and that is the desire and genuine joy that Forumers take in keeping pieces "in the family". When I got my Pisa from Dick there were lots of well-wishes and compliments to Dick for staying close to home. I know from research that I got treated very fairly and I have to believe others have as well. Meaning that the most serious and prolific IWC collectors are not looking to push the prices up artificially either. I never experienced anything like this on any other brand forum. Patek folk and Breguet folk love discussing how much older watches are realizing at auction. And, of course, the brands themselves scream this information.
Just some thoughts.

Classic watch.
[](s1152.photobucket.com/user/leosweeney/media/IW544107.jpg.html)
Beautiful movement.
[](s1152.photobucket.com/user/leosweeney/media/9828.jpg.html)

I'm not sure that I completely agree with either point, Michael.

While I think that Jubilee prices may have been somewhat static over the last two years, if we look back five years I think they are definitely down. Very definitely. I think the same is true for another IWC classic, the 5251 Portofino Moonphase, often called the best looking IWC of all time. But then again, other modern classics such as the Lange 1815 Moonphase have seen even more serious price erosion despite prices for modern Langes holding very strong.

While I am not sure I can explain the drop other than as the cyclical cooling off of a slightly overheated demand, I do not feel that this is due to the issue of similar watches, such as the Vintage Collection pieces. At their price points, I do not think they are substitutes for the older pieces. I doubt that someone buying a SS VC Portuguese or Portofino Moonphase is a likely customer for a Jubilee or 5251 at more than double the price.

Maybe it's just me getting older (or old?) but I sometimes wonder if there is an effect from the more experienced collectors reaching an age where they are cutting back, and the younger collectors did not "come of age" while these pieces were as commonly seen or discussed as they were back then.

I also find myself wondering if IWC's "lifestyle strategy" and higher profile marketing might have caused some true collectors who might have been buyers of these pieces to hold back and be replaced by buyers who prefer the newest items. While it might indeed mean higher volume for IWC, perhaps it has a dampening effect on the "seasoned collector" market.

Anyone agree? Disagree? I look forward to hearing your opinions.

I don't have enough IWC experience to weigh in on this issue but those are two of the nicest looking watches I have ever seen. What's the model with roman numerals and moon-phase - is that from 1993 too?

I agree that prices for 5441 appear to have remained steady for the last two years.

I'm inclined to agree that it is at least partly due to newer HW Portugiesers introduced, especially the 5454, which provide a cost efficient solution to those who are just after that classic look.

Another factor could be that the profile of average watch collector has shifted a bit lately, and the interest is focused more on sportier/casual watches. The prices for vintage Aquatimers and Ingenieurs seem to be on steady rise.

Anyway, I hope that the prices for 5441 remain at reasonable level, as I would dearly love to add one to my collection in the future.

Opinions, opinions. Let's try mine. Over the last ten years or a bit more IWC has been very successful with great looking pieces that had something exciting, bold. There always was that little extra. They were still a bit subdued but not quite, they had the size and the presence. The buyers were probably around their forties, maybe early fifties. They expected IWC watches to look like I described. Also the current clientele expects this, they don't know better than that this is IWC. The notion was reinforced by perfect marketing strategy and tactics.

If interested in the older watches, then this new clients might see watches that are a bit duller, not quite fitting the image of the contemporary brand. This notion may get stronger and stronger over time, as the buyers become younger and the lovers of the old watches, the original buyers of them, grow older, and are comparatively small in numbers. Of course there will be enough buyers of the new watches that may pick up an old watch, just for the collection, but why pay a price for an old watch that is comparable to that of a new watch, where the new watch is more exciting? This must have its influence on price.

Kind regards,
Paul

I could not care less if the price of the Portuguese Jubilee, is going up, down, or stabilized. Mine is a keeper, and will eventually go to my grandchild.
I suspect, however, that, on her 25th anniversary in 2018 when she will become a neo-vintage, someone will write an article about her somewhere, which will renew interest, and prices may surge.

The top picture is my 5441 Jubilee Portuguese in RG. The bottom picture is my 5251 Portofino Moonphase. This is the original model, issued from 1970's or 1980's through late 1990's. You can read about both models in the article written by Moderator Mike Friedberg and "Foie Gras" at this link:

people.timezone.com/library/extras/extras631796534478125000

A good question and a difficult one to answer. Ten years ago, the Portuguese Jubilee (5441) and the Portofino (5251) were both “must have” watches for me (along with the Ingenieurs 666, 866 and the Mark XI). At the time, they were expensive. What these watches had in common were in-house movements and the view that they were an important part of the brand’s DNA.

Valuations can be difficult to pin down. From a sterling point of view, the prices of older collectible IWCs have weakened as sterling has risen in value against the €, CHF and US$. I bought my 5441 at a time when the £/€ rate was slightly more favourable than it is today. I am seeing prices of 5441 watches today in £ terms at almost exactly the same price I paid back in 2008.

The price I paid for my 5441 in 2008 was about a third higher than the list price of the Vintage Collection Hand-wound in steel and over 40% more than the steel 5001. The last UK price list I have is dated April 2013 and the steel 5001 was listed at a slight premium to what I paid for my 5441, which still maintained a 33% premium over today's 5454 hand-wound.

In June 2011, bought my 5251 in auction for under £9000, inclusive of buyer's premium and today's asking prices would suggest it is worth more. I think I got a bargain at the time but the auction price is often the best yardstick you have for valuing an object. As we saw last year, when some very collectible vintage IWC watches failed to reach reserve prices in Geneva, the market can be volatile.

To answer Michael’s question

1 The Portuguese Jubilee peaked in sterling terms several years ago and prices have been reasonably stable but not when inflation is taken into account.
2 The gap between the current IWC price lists and the prices of popular collectible models, 5441, 666, 866 etc has continued to widen.
3 It may be that the collectors of the older collectible models are just getting older and are less active in the market.
4 There is no shortage of IWC watches with in-house movements compared to 10 years ago when there was effectively one in-house movement, the 5001.
5 The widening price gaps between list price and the older collectibles demonstrate that today’s buyers are willing to pay for the current ranges and are less concerned with the past.
6 This will upset many on the Forum but the logic is becoming too strong to ignore, these venerable watches from the past are no longer that relevant to IWC’s wider and growing consumer base.

Michael, I agree with you. There has never been more really interesting variations of the most interesting watches of IWC. These include all the lines and models. There are so many different interesting Portugieser watches now than ever before:
From the sidereal over the perpetual calendars, minute repeater and tourbillon models. There is a sportive variation with the Yacht Club and then the classic more simple style in different variations. And more customers enjoy the newer 8 day movements, the sapphire crystals, waterproofness etc.
Of course the classic Jubilee and Portofino will ever be great classic pieces and the original founding members of their lines. But I believe the asked prices for them in recent years have overheated a bit too. But they will always have their standing because offers are quite rare.

Hi all,

Interesting topic!
Yes I think the 5441 is stable last years. As you can read on this forum there is more attention for new models / limited editions.

Maybe the new watches are more into fashion? I'm more a'vintage' collector..

For me not quit understandably what the 5441 isn't going though the roof!:)..

The ref 5441 has a few benefits:
- as close it can get to a first Portugieser 325
- movement is in my eyes much nicer then the Jones cal. The Jones is a smooth movement but winds like a modern watch.
- limited at times of the 5441 Jubilee were really limited. A run of 1000 and no other dials / colors / names of resellers / boutique models / football players etc etc and other brand limiteds. I think recent limiteds have lost its premium
- script for a portugieser should have the old script
- nice packaging

I bought my jubilee new as first owner at a dealer at list price and it will be the last watch I will sell.

Dear all

On another side of the world...someone like me has been looking for 5441 and 5251 for a long time...I consider both of them (plus PISA) my IWC Grail Watch, but no luck at all...I guess most of these watches are in the good hands of European and American collectors...will keep searching for a reasonably priced one...fingers crossed...

Cheers...Kelvin
KYCF01@gmail.com

2 questions :

1. Over the past five years, the secondary price of the ref. 5441 has held relatively static (do you agree?)

MY RESPONSE: Agreed

1. This may be caused by the many other new "time only" Portuguese models that have been introduced, at a lesser cost (such as the Pure Classic, the Vintage Collection model shown above right, etc.) -again, do you agree or disagree?

MY RESPONSE: Partially agree. As an audit will show - look how quickly the boutiques sold out on the Pure Classic, and sales of other "Portuguese" models hold steady including the hand wounds. Many of today's buyers of IWC watches are attracted by the marketing and visual appeal of the models - knowing very little of the heritage behind the Name and the models. Against that as noted in this trail of posts, I do believe its a moment in the cycle when the "old guard" of IWC Collectors are getting on in years and/or collections have matured. But we do see the emergence and upcoming of "the next wave" of younger generation collectors, and 1st time buyers who come here to the forum, and having discovered the wonderful world of heritage - slowly get drawn into the Collecting Mode.

Watches, are deemed luxury (especially the collecting of them) - and let us not forget that pretty much worldwide we have seen the effects of the economic crises over the last 6 years - an entire generation of young hard working professionals have largely been obliged to set other priorities. So prices have held steady. I personally believe that in the long run, the demand for the true heritage pieces will rise and the prices will hold if not increase.

Good discussion Michael and now hard to add anything sensible, but I'm 200% in with Ralph, Martijn & Mark.

With regard to the 2nd question I think Ralph was spot on: 10 years back in-house was much rarer from IWC and with Mr. Kern the strategy has explicitely been to do more in-house movements (a. because customers like it and b. for profitability reasons).
So there are a lot of great IWC Portuguese models out there today, with in-house movements and saphire glass on both sides. '

And let's be honoust, not everybody has 'collectability' highest on it's wishlist. Finally, most of us on this forum are notthe average IWC customer, which is a good thing and brings all of these great nerd-to-nerd topics, LOL.

Best regards,

Bob

I would like to answer the 2nd part of Michaels question from my personal view. I think with all the new models with different movements, power reserve and saphire Crystals, introduced over the last years, there are now a lot of alternatives for the style and class represented by the Jubilee. Appealing ones i might ad such as the ref 5102 and ref 5442, at prices less then the Jubilee. The USP of the Jubilee, for me, is history of the watch and what this represents. Combined with the Original movement cal 98, its shear beauty and the fact it is rare. But if almost all serious collectors have one, and new and very atractive Portuguese are available , demand will fall. So if the history component is not a key issue for an IWC enthousiast, a new movement ( 8 days PR) or a new design may very well be decisive.
Which is a good thing from the company IWC perspective , because they do need new buyers at the AD i think ?

I also did some calculus on the price in 1993 towards todays money, and an interesting result comes up: us 8500,- for the ss Jubilee in 1993 @ 1,90 dutch guilders/ 1 us $ would cost you 16.150,- guilders back in the day. In todays euro , inflation corrected for the equal purchase power, this would be euro 11.125,- today. ( source : dutch national bank )
So no real rise in price, (and therefore also no peak and/or drop ?) or gain in value ( moneywise) because thats close to some asking prices i see today on the net. Or a very stable investment if you choose to look at it from that perspective.

And some of my own appreciation for the Jubilee comes from this : a watch when introduced was far to big for its time, and sold less then 700 pieces over the next 50! years, nobody wanted it ? was almost extinct, and revived in 1993 for a price even higher than a gold Patek. If you have so much working against you and you still survive, you must be a magnificent watch. Dont you love the one most which has the least going for him ? I think its part of why we are still debating and wanting it 20 years further down the line ( or does it say a lot about my mental state of health ?).

We may have to establish the difference between value and price. Some people know the price of everything and the value of nothing. These are two of the best watches IWC has made. Recent iterations have been produced, but these are the real McCoy.

You can`t measure value, and you can measure price. Value is different for everybody, the value is what you give to each watch. If prices drop you may not care much about it because you still value the watch the same.
Its a good thing IWC produced more and different watches the last 2 decades, or they may no longer have been in business and would never had the joy of owning one ;-))

Hi Dick, georgous watches. the moonphase is fantastic. can you tell me please the size of the watch and of your wrist ? indeed, i would like buy the iwc vintage moonphase 46mm and i'm not sure that it fit my 7.5 inch wrist !
thanks

Please contact me, as I have no other way to contact you. The watch in the picture is on my wrist. The watch is 46mm and my wrist is smaller than yours.

My email is whichwatch at roadrunner dot com