• 15 Jan 2015, 3:21 p.m.

    Yesterday, Switzerland stopped pegging its currency, the franc, to the Euro. This caused the franc to zoom around 20% higher against the Euro and about 16% higher against the Dollar as well as other currencies. Some watch company shares plummeted in this unexpected news; Nicolas Hayek called this a "tsunami" for the Swiss economy .

    To read one of many articles about this please click here.

    This will mean that Swiss watches are more "costly" to produce when valued in other currencies. This further means prices will gave to rise, in some instances dramatically. To the extend prices don't rise correspondingly, margins are reduced and therefore profits are less. Also, rising prices don't help sales, since demand is normally less as prices increase.

    These dire effects were reflected in market prices for watch industry stocks. Just yesterday, Swatch Group shares declined 15%. At the same time, Richemont just announced that its third quarter was the worst in years, primarily due to Asia sales (see one article here.) Richemont shares have so far declined substantially today.

    I hope the Swiss national bank reverses or moderates its decision, but it suddenly looks like it's going to be a tough year for the watch industry.

    My personal opinions:

    1) IWC, due to its product line-up and price points, is better suited than most to weather a storm
    and
    2) Buy now. Don't wait --prices have to go up.

    Your thoughts?

  • Master
    15 Jan 2015, 3:30 p.m.

    A corollary question. What will this mean for resale, preowned watch prices?

  • Master
    15 Jan 2015, 6:22 p.m.

    Wow, thank God I have enough watches right now. I may consider another place to go on my holiday. And that is about it, I guess.

    Kind regards,
    Paul

  • Apprentice
    15 Jan 2015, 8:11 p.m.

    Interesting thoughts, Michael. From IWC's CEO perspective (business point of view) it is absolutely correct to encourage people to buy IWCs!

    However, your own observation about Richmont contradicts the economic logic you try to apply: Sales have weakened in Asia dramatically. This means: More watches on stock, prices must fall. So the reason to buy now is offset by far.

    In addition: Swiss economy is one of the most productive around the globe. All companies in Switzerland will now focus on being even more productive and innovative, to further compensate the loss of the exchange ratio. This will even strengthen the economy. And I sincerely hope also IWC will finally come back to a policy of prices and watches that are more appealing to many friends of the brands that got lost during the last decade.

    Many employees of IWC will now have a party, because they live in Germany, but their salaries are paid in Swiss Franc. Imagine! This is quite a substantial present to them.

    But at the very end, as an economist, I am sure also this "wave" of panic will flatten very soon, the balance will be re-established, and the whole economic system will be stronger than before. Just because we actually all know that it just does not make sense to try to force market power by fixing an exchange rate. Finally, Swiss National Bank has accepted that.

  • Master
    15 Jan 2015, 10:25 p.m.

    IWC's decision to develop direct sales through the Boutique network gives it more options in controlling inventory and choosing not to allow too much stock to appear in the secondary market and undermine pricing. Richemont shareholders will have to be patient. The appalling watch sales in the last quarter reflect a period when the CHF was artificially depressed and pegged to the euro. The current and next quarter will begin to reflect the impact of an uncapped CHF. It's going to be ugly for the next 2 or 3 quarters. Management should avoid short term decisions that will affect the long term growth of the brand. This will also coincide with the launch of Apple's wrist product. Hopefully, depressed sales will not be blamed on the i-Watch. As a Richemont shareholder, I fear there may be better value elsewhere when the share price stabilises.

  • Graduate
    16 Jan 2015, 3:08 a.m.

    This move from Switzerland will have a definite impact on the watch industry, but as Regulateur stated previously, this "wave" will flatten and people will start purchasing luxury watches (and products) again.

    Very interesting times in the watch industry for certain.

  • Insider
    16 Jan 2015, 3:08 p.m.

    One thing I've learned so far... The franc, Euro or any other currency can go up or down, but the price of watches will always go only up!

  • Connoisseur
    16 Jan 2015, 3:14 p.m.

    Boy, do you have that right. Prices have sky-rocketed without justification. What will happen now that there is?!

  • Master
    19 Jan 2015, 3:22 p.m.

    Some sobering news and interesting ramifications. Thanks Michael.

  • Apprentice
    20 Jan 2015, 8:53 p.m.

    Ugh, meanwhile the Canadian Dollar keeps plunging. May have to put off some of my planned 2015 acquisitions....