Values of Pocket Watches

Does the Forum think the value of IWC pocket watches will increase or decrease in the next few years?

Yes

Yes and No

I believe that the "normal" pocket watches like the cal. 52 based watches will not really increase in value while the special pocket watches like ingenieur, deckwatches, cal. 71 based watches etc will increase in value.

Cheers, Toby

x2 nt.

I've thought some of those are over-priced now....

Hi Toby and all,

I could be wrong,and realize that in general the best stuff appreciates more than the common. But I've studiously avoided the Ingenieur pocket watch and cal. 71 fishtails because they are priced so high now, and somewhat out of whack in my opinion. But opinions of course are what makes a market --and sometimes I'm right and some times not.

To me the special watches do have potential --like Jones, Seelands, Pallwebers, Elgins, those with exquisite casework, etc. But not the Ingenieur nor those fishtails. They have some, but not much due to their current price levels compared to the ones I've mentioned.

And that, to me, is the issue --if you buy right there is upwards mobility. Even a common Calibre 52, if bought for say 100 USD, has huge upwards mobility --one can literally triple their money in weeks. But one won't get that same 300% return even on an Ingenieur pocket watch in a decade.

To me the issue of potential appreciation is an economic issue of current price --good deals make appreciation, not what one might personally admire. To me, the proper answer to Issy's question is "how good a deal did you get?"

Regards,
Michael

I've thought some of those are over-priced now....

Michael,

I completly agree that some of those watches are overpriced,
but you might say the same for years now for a B-Uhr or an original portuguese watch from the 1940ies. And those prices paid (not the value) continued to increase in the last couple of
years.

I guess from a value point of view most of the pocket watches
are underpaid: E.g. the caliber 95/97/98 based watches should be
on the same level than a 85xx wristwatch. But from a price paid of
view I have my doubts if the prices of the pocket watches in general will
come back to the level they had back in the 1980ies (in relation to wrist watches I mean, not absolute).

Regards, Toby

Over-priced

I think an item is over-priced if you yourself pay more than others do for a comparable item, or if the price for that item may go down in the future. That last one may be difficult to predict, but it makes sense to think that a limited amount of watches will become more expensive over a period of time as the numbers may go down because some may still get lost, and the population of collectors may increase.

Most collectors buy the watches because they like them, and because they like to make a kind of a collection complete. Most collectors are not poor, so that last deliberation may make the prices of even the not so special watches go up: it is not an easily exchangeable commodity we are talking about.

So, by stating that some watches are over-priced may mean not exactly what is stated above, but that a person is not willing to pay the price. I for instance will never pay the price that is aked for a Portuguese Jubilee right now, and settle quite comfortably for a VC Portuguese (two in fact). But the price for that Jubilee may be right, as it may not go down in the foreseeable future.

Kind regards,
Paul, wearing steel VC Pilot's watch

Tulipmania

I appreciate what you say, but in the interests of healthy debate I'm not sure I concur. Much of what you write about pricing for collectible watches also would have applied to Tulips in a different century in a country you know well.

First I'm not sure I agree when you write "a limited amount of watches will become more expensive over a period of time as the numbers may go down because some may still get lost, and the population of collectors may increase." That's true in traditional supply-demand theory, but watches are industrial commodities that can be produced endlessly in infinite and limited number variations.

At most then, the scarcity relates to "age" or "authenticity" --which seems reasonable but assumes demand. And, like Tulips, I ask why there was no material demand for vintage watches 30 or 40 years ago? The answer to some extent is that the current interest is an unusual phenomenon, to some extent manufacturer produced. And that bubble might burst when repairs become impossible or very difficult or expensive --which some vintage "collectors" are now learning. or as interests or tastes shift to different industrial-produced or artistic goods..

Second, and to some extent for converse reasons, I disagree then you say " Most collectors are not poor, so that last deliberation may make the prices of even the not so special watches go up". The problem is that ultimately every collector will meet his match, financially. It's like the old line "if you want to make a small fortune in watches, start with a large one".

While my personal finances are of course private, I will say that I have another collection which is worth many times what I have in watches. In theory, I could buy any watch I want --but that doesn't mean I will or I should, or even that I should indulge my every taste, And I suspect that many other collectors are the same --in the sense that I've seen the richest want to sell watches in order to "afford" a new one, and not just due to changing tastes,

The fact is that there is an economic bubble on the cusp of all watch collecting. And the fact is that some pricing for some vinatge models today makes no sense, even with all the talk of supply-demand theory,

Regards,
Michael
P.S. All this is not to say that any given watch isn't worth buying. Just that some vintage ones are over-priced based on current pricing. I gave two specific (and subjective) examples. But of course, as I said, I could be wrong --that's what makes a market.

The fact is, no one really knows...

The prices of some watches will go up and some will go down. Opinions on this matter are either speculation or wishful thinking, imho. My unsolicited advise is that watches should be collected primarily for fun and only secondarily as an investment. I will be happy, if I break even at the time of sale. I will consider any loss the price for having had a heck of a ride.

of course, but that's true of every purchase...

...including not only watches, but stock and bonds. And it's also true every time the hammer goes down on a piece of artwork.

The real fact is, everything that we pay currency for is an economic commodity. I absolutely agree that watches should be collected primarily for fun and only secondarily as an investment --but still one has to pay for them and that fun.

And every time that payment is made there is a "guns or butter" economic decision made. We're trading something ---whether it is a new car or a holiday somewhere exotic or an investment opportunity-- for that watch. It is the rare person who shouldn't care whether A is worth more than B or C. Few people in this universe have such discretionary capital.

I rarely, perhaps never, have bought watches strictly as an investment. But given what they cost --almost never an insubstantial sum-- their "residual value" cannot be ignored. It is still real dollar or Euros or francs involved in the exchange.

Regards,
Michael

The recent debates about value...

have not been very enlightening, except to demonstrate that some members think some prices are already too high while others do not agree (no great surprise there).

There are many examples where prices of 'commodities' (essentials and non-essentials alike) continue to increase without suffering the effect of 'tulip mania', a phenomenon which is not certain to occur.
Most 'markets' are prone to fluctuations and can be affected by external factors, such as the market for exotic vintage cars which was, in the past, badly affected by increased oil prices, making many cars unsaleable. As we have seen, that situation has since reversed. So even if there is a blip it doesn't have to be forever.

As others have advised, buy what you like and as long as you feel you bought at a fair price, that's all that matters.

Hmm, tulips and pocket watches

Tulips had, and still have, a continuing supply. So that bubble is exemplary but not really to the point here, as pocket watches are not produced anymore by for instance IWC, therefore limited, and gaining popularity as "something you should have when you are interested in watches". What you really suggest, Michael, is that you expect that some pocket watches form a bubble now which may blow some day, which is OK by me, but I do not think so. I will not buy one of those, but mainly because I am not interested in them.

Kind regards,
Paul, wearing rose gold VC Portuguese